Australia - English
A news background during the first half of the day on Friday is rather favoring dollar than euro on Forex. On the one hand, we see that recently released data in the US supporting the US currency. Inflation as well as PPI data above expectations in September, and negative data on the mortgage defaults in the US – everything contributes to a decrease in the risk appetite and rise in demand for refuge-currencies.
On the other hand, we would like to point out the fact that quite a number of Fed’s representatives who spoke during this week,...
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Fundamental Analysis
15.10.2010 USD/RUR — from Russia with currency!
October 15, 2010 - 09:59
It’s time to talk about a possible strategy on the Forex market in November. If we were taking exclusive “bullish” positions on EUR/USD this month while talking about reasonability to buy the pair at the expectations of the Fed’s meeting on November 2-3 and QE2, then next month everything might be absolutely other way around. In the very end we once again resort to the famous phrase “sell dollar before QE2, buy facts”. In other words, we expect to see a strong correctional strengthening of the US dollar in November due to the following...
Thursday. European session summary
October 14, 2010 - 15:17
On Thursday we observe a further decline in the dollar’s rate against the unexpected decision of Singapore to tighten its monetary policy. The market participants have taken this step explicitly and presumed that the other Asian Central Banks (and not only Asian) will also go for raising the interest rates and strengthening domestic currency. If we take into account the fact that all the talks about the US exclusively concern the easing of the monetary policy, then there is nothing surprising in seeing subsequent massive sales of the US...
Forex: QE is priced in!?
October 14, 2010 - 11:01
The talks about the second round of QE in the US being priced in the Treasury prices continue to take place on the bond market. Namely if that is so, the EUR/USD rise before the Fed’s meeting on November 2-3 may be limited by the level of 1.4150 or 1.4250. Moreover, at the day of the meeting we can well see some profit-taking in EUR/USD, especially if the Fed expands the asset repurchase program for less than $500 bln. In much the same way we can presume that the USD/JPY pair’s drop will be limited by the level of 80 yens per dollar.
As...
EUR/USD: full speed ahead!
October 14, 2010 - 10:08
Europe: Debt crisis is over?
It’s about time to pay attention at the European sovereign debt market where we are prone to point out an improvement of the bond situation in the PIGS countries. The first thing that is evident is a rather reserved reaction of the bond market to the recent announcements of Axel Weber on the necessity of stopping the asset repurchase program worth 750 bln euro. It doesn’t seem that there will be problems occurring after stopping the program. On the contrary, Weber’s comments might follow that ECB considers the...
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